Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms?
I've heard so much about how prediction markets are the guiding light in this dark world. But when put head to head against polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model, they are really a wash. Especially looking at flipped or close-by-polls races, there is no alpha compared to a traditional poll-based model. Was this obvious to everyone else too? Can we treat them like the entertainment they are and tax them for the terrible ads?
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points · 1 votes
2026-11-07 04:30:20.752Z
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What changed
Source account: I've heard so much about how prediction markets are the guiding light in this dark world. But when put head to head against polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model, they are really a wash. Especially looking at flipped or close-by-polls races, there is no alpha compared to a traditional poll-based model. Was this obvious to everyone else too? Can we treat them like the entertainment they are and tax them for the terrible ads?
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Source votes: 1 votes (Nov 7, 2026 UTC; cumulative since publication) Recent records to compare: “[分享创造] ConvertPixel：浏览器本地处理的图片工具箱” (V2EX, Nov 6, 2026); “Show HN: Self-Annotating Stock Charts” (Show HN, Nov 6, 2026). Shared themes are navigation hints; they have not been verified as the same need or independent corroboration.
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